A tip is only worth following if you can see how it was chosen and how the tipster's bets have done over time. This page explains both, because a tipster who hides their working, or their losers, isn't worth following.
What we look at before every tip
- Team news: injuries, suspensions and rotation. A missing goalkeeper or centre-forward can move a price more than a month of form.
- Underlying numbers: shots, chances and expected goals (xG) say more about the next match than a lucky 1-0 does.
- The schedule: a midweek European or cup tie, extra time and long away trips.
- Motivation: title races, relegation fights and dead rubbers in the last weeks of the season.
- The price: we only tip a bet when we think its chance is better than the odds imply.
Turning odds into a percentage chance is the core skill here, and how football odds work walks through it.
Our staking plan
We stake in points so results mean the same thing whatever your budget. One point is a fixed unit you choose, for example 1% of the money you have set aside for betting.
| Confidence | Stake |
|---|---|
| Main bet of the weekend | 2 pts |
| Standard tip | 1 pt |
| Bigger-priced or speculative tip, including accas | 0.5 pt |
We settle every tip at the price we advised. Asian handicap and goal-line bets that are half refunded are recorded exactly, for example -0.50 pt, never rounded to a win or a loss.
How we measure results
Strike rate is the share of tips that won: winners divided by tips, times 100. Return on investment (ROI) is profit divided by total points staked, times 100. Strike rate alone tells you little, because the price decides how many winners you need.
| Average odds | Fractional | Strike rate needed to break even |
|---|---|---|
| 1.50 | 1/2 | 66.7% |
| 2.00 | Evens | 50.0% |
| 2.50 | 6/4 | 40.0% |
| 3.00 | 2/1 | 33.3% |
Two made-up records show why. Tipster A finds 60 winners from 100 one-point bets at average odds of 1.60: 96 points back, a 4-point loss and an ROI of -4%. Tipster B finds 32 winners at average odds of 3.25: 104 points back and an ROI of +4%, from a strike rate little more than half as high.
Closing line value
Next to the price we advised, we record the price at kick-off, known as the closing price. If we tipped a team at 2.10 and they started at 1.95, the market moved our way. Results take hundreds of bets to separate skill from luck, so beating the closing price more often than not is one of the earlier signs that tips have an edge.
The record
Every tip goes into the record, including losers and half-stake results. This is the layout we use:
| Date | Match | Bet | Stake | Advised | Closing | Result | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Example date | Riverside Rovers v Northgate City | Riverside Rovers to win | 2 pts | 2.10 | 1.95 | Won 2-1 | +2.20 pts |
| Example date | Harbour Town v Ashford Athletic | Both teams to score: yes | 1 pt | 1.80 | 1.72 | Lost 1-0 | -1.00 pt |
| Example date | Kingsmead v Eastbridge Wanderers | Eastbridge +0.75 | 1 pt | 1.90 | 1.85 | Lost 2-1, half refunded | -0.50 pt |
Example rows: replace these with your real results. The fixtures are the made-up ones from our example tips post.
What we will never do
We will never promise guaranteed winners, delete losing tips or suggest that betting is a way to make money you need. Football is unpredictable: long losing runs happen to every tipster, which is why stakes should stay small and fixed.
FAQs
What is a good strike rate for football tips?
It depends on the odds. Tips on short-priced favourites at around 1.50 need a strike rate above 66.7% just to break even, while tips averaging 3.00 break even at 33.3%. Judge a tipster on ROI across several hundred bets, not on strike rate alone.
What does ROI mean in betting?
ROI, or return on investment, is profit divided by total stakes, shown as a percentage. If you stake 200 points in total and finish 6 points up, your ROI is 3%. It shows how hard each point staked has worked, whatever size your stakes are.
What is closing line value?
Closing line value is the difference between the price you took and the price at kick-off. If you back a team at 2.10 and it starts at 1.95, you beat the closing line. Doing that consistently over hundreds of bets suggests your prices are better than the market's final view.